The text originates from: Futures Daily

Good morning, let's start by checking out the important updates.

Russia's economy reaches a historic high in 2024 with a 4.1% increase in GDP

According to CCTV news, on February 7 local time, Russian President Putin received a report from Prime Minister Mishustin regarding the state of the country's economic development at the Kremlin.

Mikhail Mishustin announced that in 2024, Russia's GDP grew by 4.1%, reaching a record high of 200 trillion rubles.

Mishuskin stated that the output of Russia's manufacturing sector exceeded expectations, growing by 8.5%. Various industries, including machinery manufacturing, exhibited a positive growth trend, with increases ranging from 10% to 20%. However, export volumes have decreased. In the first 11 months of 2024, the real income of residents increased by 8.4%, and real wages grew by 8.7%. Presently, the domestic unemployment rate is 2.3%.

Putin stated that the economic performance in 2024 is satisfactory, and that 2025 should be a year of balanced economic growth.

Mikhail Mishustin also mentioned that, as a result of inflation, the growth rate of the Russian economy in 2025 might slow down relative to 2024.

Significant data has come out, and inflation expectations have surged

On the evening of February 7, Beijing time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that in January 2025, the non-farm payroll in the U.S. rose by 143,000, marking the lowest increase in three months and significantly below the expected 175,000. The previous figure was an increase of 256,000. In January, government jobs increased by 32,000, manufacturing jobs increased by 3,000, and private sector jobs saw an increase of 111,000.

The report indicates that in January 2025, the unemployment rate in the United States dropped to 4%, the lowest level since May of the previous year, falling below both the forecast and the previous rate of 4.1%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payroll job numbers for November of last year were revised upward from 212,000 to 261,000, and those for December were significantly adjusted from 256,000 to 307,000. As a result of these revisions, the total number of new jobs for November and December last year is now 100,000 higher than previously reported.

This report is the first employment statistics released since Trump took office on January 20. Some analysts suggest that, although the job growth in January fell short of expectations, the data from the previous month was significantly revised upwards, and the unemployment rate surprisingly decreased. Overall, this non-farm payroll report does not offer the Federal Reserve much leeway to lower interest rates.

Additionally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for February in the United States stands at 67.8, which is a seven-month low and considerably lower than the expected 71.8, down from 71.1 in January. The start of the "tariff war" has caused a significant surge in short-term inflation expectations, with one-year inflation expectations skyrocketing to 4.3%, the highest in 15 months, while five-year inflation expectations are consistent with those during the peak inflation period of 2022.

Following the release of the data, the US dollar index briefly soared, and yields on US Treasury bonds increased sharply across all maturities, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields climbing by more than 1%. Analysts suggest that the January non-farm payroll report is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate policy.

After the U.S. stock market opened, the three major indices experienced narrow fluctuations while Chinese assets surged once again. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by more than 2%, the 3x leveraged FTSE China ETF soared by over 8%, the 2x leveraged China Internet Stocks ETF rose by more than 6%, and both the China Technology ETF and the China Overseas Internet ETF went up by more than 3%.

At the market close, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.34%. Futu Holdings jumped over 8%, Tiger Brokers rose more than 6%, Li Auto gained over 4%, Alibaba was up by over 3%, both iQIYI and Bilibili climbed more than 2%, and Pinduoduo saw an increase of over 1%.

Spot gold has reached a new intraday high of $2886.83 per ounce, and as of the time of this report, it stands at $2860 per ounce, marking six consecutive weeks of increases.

International oil prices increased overall, with the US oil March contract rising by 0.64% but down 2.03% for the week; the Brent oil April contract rose by 0.59% but fell 1.24% for the week.